By now you know Trump won big in the New York primary. Bigger than most people expected.
According to a Fox poll, Trump leads nationally with Republican “men, women, every age group, every income group, and among those with a college degree and those without.”
So, if somehow the GOP nominates a candidate other than Trump, the only Republicans who will be angry about it are …“men, women, every age group, every income group, and among those with a college degree and those without.”
Shenanigans might happen at the convention. But unless something big changes, the GOP will either become the Trump party or the newest resident of history’s dust bin, living under a Clinton presidency. The GOP is down to two options.
And by now all pundits recognize Trump’s third act transformation underway. But keep in mind that they are describing it while it happens whereas I predicted it months ago. Big difference. The Master Persuader filter continues to predict with spooky accuracy.
Did I mention that Trump won in New York with Republican women? It turns out that being the most forceful voice for protecting women’s health might be a winning strategy. Quickly, name the other candidate who is willing to be labelled a racist to decrease the risk of rape in this country.
Right. The frame is changing.
A few months ago Trump was the crazy clown saying racist things about rapists coming from Mexico, and rapists coming in via Syrian refugees. What do those two things have in common?
Well, racism, for one. But that part is in your head. Trump has never mentioned race. He has mentioned illegal immigration and he has mentioned religion and terrorism. But the race part is all you, influenced no doubt by the “wisdom” of the Internet. None of that came from Trump’s mouth or brain.
The way our brains work, outrageous ideas start seeming less so over time. Consider Trump’s wall idea. That went from outrageous to reasonable in six months. Even Clinton supports good border security. Now all we’re talking about is the height of the wall and who pays for it.
The same is happening with Trump’s comments about rapists coming from Mexico and from Syrian immigration. In the beginning, those thoughts were toxic. But we’re nearing a point where the outrageousness is wearing off and what remains is this: Trump is the strongest voice for women’s safety.
You might disagree with Trump’s views on abortion, but keep in mind that the point is to save the lives of what he sees as living girls and boys. And Trump favors abortion when the mother’s health is an issue.
Now consider Trump’s gun policies that would allow women to own guns for self-protection. You might disagree with Trump’s gun policies, but you can see that in every case he is looking out for the interests of women (as he sees it).
Remember Trump’s big blunder on the question of penalties for illegal abortion? That worked against him, big time, at first. It made him seem uninformed and non-empathetic to women. So women let him know he screwed up. And he immediately changed.
That change is the biggest story of the campaign. Women needed to know that their wishes would translate into policy with a Trump presidency. Trump proved he can listen and adjust. The mistake isn’t the important part. The adjustment is.
By analogy, restaurant owners know that the most loyal customers are the ones who had a complaint that got resolved to their satisfaction. People are usually more invested in the fix than the complaint. If a restaurant gets the fix right, the customer bonds for life. Trump got it wrong with abortion penalties, but his fix was swift and unambiguous. Voters notice the fix. And they bond to it.
As I often say in this blog, my political views do not align with Trump or with any of the other candidates. But objectively speaking, Trump has the strongest voice on protecting women, even if you don’t like how he would go about it.
I predict Trump will win the vote of women in the general election. And I think his path to do it is almost humorously easy. It’s an identity play, and it goes like this:
“Women, do you identify with Hillary Clinton?”
If you don’t like this blog post, imagine how much you would hate my book.