Scott Adams' Blog

The Non-Expert Problem and Climate Change Science

Posted December 5th, 2016 @ 11:42am in #Trump #climate science

Before I start, let me say as clearly as possible that I agree with the scientific consensus on climate change. If science says something is true – according to most scientists, and consistent with the scientific method – I accept their verdict.

I realize that science can change its mind, of course. Saying something is “true” in a scientific sense always leaves open the option of later reassessing that view if new evidence comes to light. Something can be “true” according to science while simultaneously being completely wrong. Science allows that odd situation to exist, at least temporarily, while we crawl toward truth.

So when I say I agree with the scientific consensus on climate change, I’m endorsing the scientific consensus for the same reason I endorsed Hillary Clinton for the first part of the election – as a strategy to protect myself. I endorse the scientific consensus on climate change to protect my career and reputation. To do otherwise would be dumb, at least in my situation.

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Trump and the Taiwan Call

Posted December 3rd, 2016 @ 9:38am in #Trump #Taiwan #onechina

By now you know that President Elect Trump took a call from the President of Taiwan and simultaneously lit on fire the underpants of the mainstream media and maybe the leadership of China too.

Apparently taking a phone call from the president of Taiwan is a major diplomatic change from the so-called “One China Policy” that imagines Taiwan as a rogue province of China, not its own country. Reports are saying this call was planned, not a mistake on the Trump team’s side.

Was this a mistake by Trump?

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The New CEO’s First Moves (and Trump)

Posted December 1st, 2016 @ 8:41am in #Trump

One of the things I will enjoy about the Trump presidency is watching non-business writers try to explain his methods. Case in point, the recent stories about Ford and Carrier keeping some parts of their manufacturing in the United States because Trump negotiated/bullied them into staying. If you tell that story through a political filter – which is all I have seen so far – you focus on the facts. In this case, the political story is that both the Ford and Carrier situations are exaggerated claims of success.

The political filter misses the story completely. As usual.

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The Idea You are Least Likely to Believe

Posted November 30th, 2016 @ 10:13am in #Trump

When Trump started his historic run for the White House last year, I blogged that he would change more than politics. I said he would forever change how we view reality. And so he has.

The mainstream media and the public now accept the idea that Trump ignored facts, science, and even common decency… and still got elected. I have been telling readers of this blog for a year that facts don’t matter. Policies don’t matter. The only thing that matters is persuasion. And Trump has plenty of persuasion.

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About #Pizzagate

Posted November 29th, 2016 @ 9:44am in #Trump #pizzagate

If you aren’t following the dark corners of social media you might not know of something called Pizzagate. Snopes.com calls it a “detailed conspiracy theory.”

The basic idea is that a pizza parlor in Washington DC is alleged to be the center of a major child sex ring that involves top Democrats close to Hillary Clinton. I have labelled this story “not credible,” and that opinion is confusing people because there is a mountain of evidence supporting the allegations.

So let me tell you what a mountain of evidence is worth.

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The Trump Talent Stack

Posted November 28th, 2016 @ 7:55am in #Trump #kanye2020

As I explained in my book, there are two ways to make yourself valuable. The first way is to become the best at some specific skill, the way Tiger Woods dominated golf. But not many of us can be Tiger Woods. So that path is unavailable to 99% of the world.

I recommend a different approach. Most people can – with practice – develop a variety of skills that work well together. I call this idea the Talent Stack.

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A Lesson in Cognitive Dissonance

Posted November 23rd, 2016 @ 8:22am in #Trump #WhenHub

Imagine you are one of the anti-Trump folks who believe we just elected a racist, sexist, homophobic, anti-semitic, science-denying dictator. Let’s say that’s the movie playing in your mind. That’s some scary stuff.

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Persuasion Versus Populism

Posted November 21st, 2016 @ 12:24pm in #Trump

I’m hearing lots of after-the-fact explanations for why Trump won the election. The most common interpretation of events is that many citizens had a view of the country that pundits, pollsters, and the Clinton campaign missed. But somehow Trump accurately identified the mood of the people – especially in the Great Lakes region – and crafted a message to fit their emotions.

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Generating Cognitive Dissonance for Fun

Posted November 20th, 2016 @ 1:43pm in #Trump

One of my favorite debate techniques involves the use of questions instead of statements. I’ve never seen this method change anyone’s mind, but it can generate an unusually clear form of cognitive dissonance. And that’s good entertainment for you.

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Reprogram an Anti-Trumper with This Article

Posted November 17th, 2016 @ 8:20am in #Trump

It would take me too long to explain why this article about Trump, by Scott Alexander, is so important to you and to the country. Stop whatever you are doing and give it ten minutes.

Seriously. Stop what you are doing. Give this ten minutes. It’s more important that almost anything you were going to do today.

Then save the link for later sharing. Show it to all of your friends who think Trump is a racist monster. This ends it.

The only people who will think Trump is a racist going forward are people who haven’t read this article. If you find someone like that, send them the link. This piece is a brilliant service to the country. Breathtaking.

Here’s the short link for easy sharing: http://bit.ly/2f3iTxB

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