Scott Adams' Blog

Deplorable Pneumonia

Posted September 12th, 2016 @ 5:38pm in #Trump #Clinton

When Hillary Clinton called half of Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables,” I said it would not move the polls more than 1%. My thinking is that we have three types of voters:

1. The Deplorables – who already made up their minds for Trump.

2. Clinton supporters – who already made up their minds for Clinton.

3. Undecideds – who don’t care about stuff like this. That’s why they are undecided. And most of them probably have decided. They just don’t want to admit it.

All by itself, the “deplorable” gaffe wouldn’t be much of an issue in the long run. Clinton had time to apologize and recover from it.

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Checking My Predictions About Clinton’s Health

Posted September 11th, 2016 @ 6:50pm in #Trump #Clinton

In a blog post I wrote on December 27th, 2015, I said this…

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The Race for President is (Probably) Over

Posted September 11th, 2016 @ 10:58am in #Clinton #Trump

If you are following breaking news, Hillary Clinton abruptly left the 9-11 memorial today because she was reportedly “overheated.” Her campaign says she is fine now.

You probably wonder if the “overheated” explanation is true – and a non-issue as reported – or an indication of a larger medical condition. I’m blogging to tell you it doesn’t matter. The result is the same.

Here’s why.

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Check Out my Sulley Prediction from 2009

Posted September 10th, 2016 @ 12:28pm in #Trump #Sulley #Clinton #basketofdeplorables

One of the the most important things I learned while getting my degree in economics is that economies are driven by psychology. If people expect tomorrow to be better than today, they make investments. If they think things are in decline, they wait it out, and that lack of investment makes things decline further. Psychology rules. Almost everything else is just scenery.

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Measuring the Shy Trump Supporters

Posted September 9th, 2016 @ 11:07am in #Trump #Clinton #garyjohnson #jill stein

It’s hard to count people who are intentionally hiding. But just for fun, let’s see if we can deduce how many so-called Shy Trump Supporters are out there.

For starters, we can say with certainty that they exist. I have a better ear for that than most of you because of my Trump blogging and my public endorsement of Clinton for my personal safety. People feel comfortable telling me privately, and also anonymously online, that they hide their Trump support from their spouse and coworkers. So we know they exist. We just don’t know how many.

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The Time I Took Sides with Black Lives Matter. And Colin Kaepernick.

Posted September 7th, 2016 @ 3:00pm in #Trump #colin kaepernick #blacklivesmatter

Every few years you see a news story about a monk setting himself on fire in a public square to protest some sort of injustice. I always have two reactions to that sort of thing. On one hand, I think that monk was an idiot. Surely there are better ways to communicate a message.

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Godzilla!!!

Posted September 6th, 2016 @ 10:33am in #Trump #Clinton #pre-suasion #influence #robert cialdini

Read this short article then read this new book by Robert Cialdini (the Godzilla of persuasion).

Seriously. Change your plans. Read this book. Thank me later.

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Why Trump Doesn’t Scare Me

Posted September 5th, 2016 @ 10:27am in #trump #bogeyman #confirmation bias #pre-suasion

Donald Trump scares a lot of people. They worry that he is a crazy racist who can’t be trusted with the nuclear codes. They worry that he will needlessly insult foreign leaders. They worry that he isn’t sufficiently knowledgeable to do the job. And so on.

But unlike the frightened masses, I perceive Trump to be safer than the average candidate for president. You might wonder what-the-hell I’m seeing that you are not seeing. That’s worth detailing because it is always fascinating when people look at the same situation and have wildly different interpretations. With that setup, here are my reasons why Donald Trump does not scare me.

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Trump’s Immigration Speech - Persuasion Score

Posted September 1st, 2016 @ 9:41am in #trump #clinton

Trump gave his much-awaited Immigration speech last night. I’ll let the fact-checkers tell you how much of it was based on reality. That’s not my department. I will focus on how persuasive it was, not the politics.

Trump needed to undo the persuasion that Clinton’s side has been laying on the public for months. Specifically, Trump needed to demonstrate that he is…

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Deportation and Deals

Posted August 31st, 2016 @ 11:33am in #trump #clinton #mexico wall

Many Americans – mostly supporters of Trump – want to deport the 11 million illegal immigrants living in the United States. They usually cite one or more of the following reasons.

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