Scott Adams' Blog

How to Know an Election is Over

Posted September 22nd, 2016 @ 8:59am in #Trump #Clinton

In the 2D world in which most people live, Clinton and Trump are polling about evenly, and either one could win. The 2D world is all about facts and policies and common sense. In other words – all the stuff we think we care about but really don’t.

In the 3D world of persuasion, however, the election is already over. There is still some mystery about how large the margin will be, but Trump is already the President of the United States unless something big happens in the next few weeks. How do I know that?

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Checking My Spooky Predictions

Posted September 19th, 2016 @ 8:41am in #Trump #Clinton

Check out my blog post from August 10th on the “surprises” that could cause Trump to come from behind and win. At the time, Clinton was well ahead in the polls, thanks to a convention bounce and the Khan situation. I noted at the time that the likely “surprises” favored Trump.

How’d I do?

From August 10th:

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You might enjoy my book because my neighbor Kristina did.

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Assessing the Risk of Trump

Posted September 18th, 2016 @ 4:23pm in #Trump #Clinton

For over a year now I have been blogging about Trump’s talent for persuasion, and that gives people the impression that I prefer him as my president. That is not the case. I’ll tell you why at the end of this post.

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Trump and Birtherism - update

Posted September 16th, 2016 @ 11:01am in #Trump #Clinton #Birther

Moments ago, Donald Trump acknowledged that Barack Obama was born in the United States. You all know that’s a big deal because Trump was the leader of the so-called “birther” movement, which critics called racist.

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Deplorable Pneumonia

Posted September 12th, 2016 @ 5:38pm in #Trump #Clinton

When Hillary Clinton called half of Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables,” I said it would not move the polls more than 1%. My thinking is that we have three types of voters:

1. The Deplorables – who already made up their minds for Trump.

2. Clinton supporters – who already made up their minds for Clinton.

3. Undecideds – who don’t care about stuff like this. That’s why they are undecided. And most of them probably have decided. They just don’t want to admit it.

All by itself, the “deplorable” gaffe wouldn’t be much of an issue in the long run. Clinton had time to apologize and recover from it.

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Checking My Predictions About Clinton’s Health

Posted September 11th, 2016 @ 6:50pm in #Trump #Clinton

In a blog post I wrote on December 27th, 2015, I said this…

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The Race for President is (Probably) Over

Posted September 11th, 2016 @ 10:58am in #Clinton #Trump

If you are following breaking news, Hillary Clinton abruptly left the 9-11 memorial today because she was reportedly “overheated.” Her campaign says she is fine now.

You probably wonder if the “overheated” explanation is true – and a non-issue as reported – or an indication of a larger medical condition. I’m blogging to tell you it doesn’t matter. The result is the same.

Here’s why.

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Check Out my Sulley Prediction from 2009

Posted September 10th, 2016 @ 12:28pm in #Trump #Sulley #Clinton #basketofdeplorables

One of the the most important things I learned while getting my degree in economics is that economies are driven by psychology. If people expect tomorrow to be better than today, they make investments. If they think things are in decline, they wait it out, and that lack of investment makes things decline further. Psychology rules. Almost everything else is just scenery.

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Measuring the Shy Trump Supporters

Posted September 9th, 2016 @ 11:07am in #Trump #Clinton #garyjohnson #jill stein

It’s hard to count people who are intentionally hiding. But just for fun, let’s see if we can deduce how many so-called Shy Trump Supporters are out there.

For starters, we can say with certainty that they exist. I have a better ear for that than most of you because of my Trump blogging and my public endorsement of Clinton for my personal safety. People feel comfortable telling me privately, and also anonymously online, that they hide their Trump support from their spouse and coworkers. So we know they exist. We just don’t know how many.

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The Time I Took Sides with Black Lives Matter. And Colin Kaepernick.

Posted September 7th, 2016 @ 3:00pm in #Trump #colin kaepernick #blacklivesmatter

Every few years you see a news story about a monk setting himself on fire in a public square to protest some sort of injustice. I always have two reactions to that sort of thing. On one hand, I think that monk was an idiot. Surely there are better ways to communicate a message.

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