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0 CommentsHow to Know Your Dating Site is a Fraud
Posted August 29th, 2015 @ 10:50am
When the Ashley-Madison hack revealed that the vast majority of female profiles on the “dating” site were fake, three groups of people already knew that. A long time ago.
One of those groups includes all of the people on Earth that have more than five minutes of experience in the business world. If you are building a business that only has value if populated by lots of users on day one, you can’t get there from here. At least not legally, or ethically.
And if you do, there is some special case going on.
There are many dating websites. Can there be that many special cases? They all seemed to be populated with hot people on day one. (Otherwise they would not be in business today.) Did any of them get there organically, or even honestly? Again, anyone with five minutes of business experience already knows the answer, statistically speaking.
0 CommentsWhy Do They Hate Science So Much?
Posted August 28th, 2015 @ 10:31pm in #science
I love science more than you do. I would have sex with science if it let me. Sometimes I worship science. It has earned my trust, unlike whatever absurdities other people believe in. I am a man of reason.
Sure, science has a few warts. Don’t we all? And remember, science is more of a journey toward truth than a destination. We expect corrections along the way. Those corrections are an essential part of the scientific journey to truth.
0 CommentsTrump and Godwin’s Law
Posted August 28th, 2015 @ 10:37am in #Trump
The media is having a hard time wounding Trump. The attacks keep bouncing off. Looks like they stepped up their game today.
Here’s the SHOCKING story of how Trump once owned, or still owns, a book of Hitler’s speeches. It was a gift from a friend. Trump admits it and names the friend. The friend confirms he gave it to Trump.
I’m sure the friend meant well. Trump is a master persuader, and obviously Hitler was too. I’m thinking of picking up a copy for the same reason that I assume the friend thought Trump would be interested. Trump says he did not read it. I’ll bet that is true, but only because his skills are already at that level. There wouldn’t be much for Trump to learn. And it seems kind of a downer.
To put things in context, a book of speeches from Kennedy, Reagan, or Dr. King would have been good gifts as well. And for the same reason. But less of a downer. So what we have here is a case of a very shitty gift-buyer.
The media, or some of it, is looking for a Trump kill shot. When Hitler’s name enters the mix, you know all the other ammo is already gone.
Look for LOTS more Hitler comparisons. Until it all seems silly.
I think you have seen a bunch in my comment section already.
And the press continues its slide to irrelevance.
Scott
0 CommentsNate Silver Gives Trump 2% Chance of Getting Nominated
Posted August 28th, 2015 @ 9:57am in #Trump
On August 6th, Nate Silver predicted in his highly-respected FiveThiryEight blog that Donald Trump had only a 2% chance of getting the Republican nomination. Silver’s prediction is based on historical patterns, solid data, and sound reasoning. He’s great at what he does. Maybe the best.
A week later, on August 13th, I wrote my post about Trump’s “clown genius” and predicted – based on his tool set – that Trump would win the Republican nomination and the general election as well.
On August 24th, based on Trump’s continued use of masterful persuasion techniques, I doubled-down and modified my prediction to say he would win the general election by a large margin. I believe I am alone in that prediction, at least among the talking-head/pundit/writer set. I realize that a healthy chunk of voters think he can go all the way. But the smart professionals almost universally expect him to flame out.
0 CommentsThe Iranian Nuke Deal You Don’t Understand
Posted August 27th, 2015 @ 11:00am in #iran nuclear deal
So, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a nuke deal that looks to many observers as if we might be terrible negotiators. But we have no way of knowing what the secret side agreements are. And one assumes there are a few.
Have you noticed that the Israeli lobbying efforts on this topic seem uncharacteristically toothless? The media is acting surprised. You rarely see such a strong lobbying group coming up short. Kind of a mystery.
0 CommentsTrump Persuasion Alert: The Bush-Slayer Comment
Posted August 27th, 2015 @ 9:58am in #Trump
This article explains how Trump has decided to call Jeb Bush a “low energy” candidate.
That’s a linguistic kill shot. If you live to be a hundred, you will never see a better linguistic move.
No candidate can recover from the low-energy label. Trump ended Bush with two words. Now, even if Trump stumbles, Bush won’t be the one that surges to the front. From now on, Bush’s campaign hat is an anvil.
0 CommentsTrump Persuasion Alert: Bible Dodge
Posted August 26th, 2015 @ 8:58pm in #Trump
If you have been following my analysis of Trump’s persuasive brilliance you will see another example on display in this new story.
On the surface, Trump seems to be just another politician dodging just another question. Routine stuff, right?
0 CommentsThe Third Way on Immigration (Sort of a Trump Post)
Posted August 26th, 2015 @ 11:08am in #Trump
Readers have objected to my prediction that Trump will win the nomination and then the general election because…
1. Trump needs about 40% of the Latino vote to win.
2. Only 13% of Latino voters support Trump, largely because of his immigration plan.
No politician can close that gap. Therefore, say the people that have been spectacularly wrong about all-things-Trump, he must be playing some sort of power game with no real intention of winning the whole thing.
Maybe.
I can see both the math and the reasoning behind that point of view. I’ll bet it would be hard to persuade you that Trump can close that kind of gap in such a short time.
Game on.
0 CommentsTrump Makes Univision do the Perp Walk
Posted August 25th, 2015 @ 9:28pm in #Trump
Could I love the man more? No. I could not.
I don’t know how Trump will perform as president, but he sure entertains.
If you are following my blog series on Donald Trump’s persuasive genius, you have to see this master stroke from today.
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