Scott Adams' Blog

The Oddest Thing About Trump

Posted January 11th, 2016 @ 9:00am in #Trump

Whether you love Trump or hate him, you probably wonder why he never apologizes and never changes his story, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that he should. Trump seems otherwise intelligent – he graduated from an Ivy League school and built a business empire. So what the hell is up with not admitting when he is wrong?

Is it narcissism?
Is he mentally unstable?
Is he a big liar?
Does he use hyperbole just to get the media involved?

He does use hyperbole for effect, but the deeper explanation is simpler. It is Persuasion 101.

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The Iowa Reframing

Posted January 11th, 2016 @ 8:22am in #Trump #iowa caucus #cruz

I can’t stop laughing about Trump’s Iowa reframing. You probably heard about it. The setup goes like this:

- Trump was trailing Cruz in Iowa polls.

- Trump taunted an Iowa audience with “You have not picked a lot of winners.”

- The media reported Trump’s taunts.

And the very next poll showed Trump slightly atop Cruz once you factor in the less-likely-to-vote people who will definitely vote this time.

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Could Science Build a Radicalized Muslim Detector?

Posted January 11th, 2016 @ 5:01am

How hard would it be to build a device that can accurately detect a radicalized Muslim?

Answer: Probably easier than you think.

I assume the only obstacles to building such a device are the ethical considerations. But if you can get past that – and as a thought experiment only – allow me to describe a system that would work to detect a radicalized Muslim nearly every time.

All you need to do is create an ever-evolving set of provocative sentences and images that are similar to the types that terrorist recruiters use. Those are the same images that will trigger brain excitement in someone who has been radicalized.

Then run tests on captured radicals to figure out which parts of their brains light up when they see images known to promote radicalization. Short exposure to the materials won’t accidentally radicalize an innocent person – so that isn’t a worry – but I’m sure the images would activate predictable parts of the brain in people already radicalized.

I don’t think the public mood will allow a serious discussion of mandatory brain scans, but suppose we developed a fast-track for immigrants who volunteer for the tests. No one would force anyone to submit to a brain scan. It would simply be another path for some of the peace-loving people to get through.

If you are worried that a dedicated terrorist could practice viewing these sorts of images until he could beat the test, that is unlikely. The images and sentences could be changed up every week to keep them fresh. And in the event that a terrorist managed to practice until the images in the genre had no power over his brain, that person would have effectively hypnotized himself out of being a terrorist. (Seriously.)

And in case you wondered, we could also use brain scanning technologies to A-B test ways to DE-radicalize prisoners of war through persuasion. With A-B testing, Tony Robbins could turn the Guantanamo Bay prisoners into cheerful butlers for the wealthy. It would take him about a day.

That’s a slight exaggeration.

I think it would take a month.

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The Laugh Tell (Trump Master Persuader Series)

Posted January 9th, 2016 @ 12:32pm in #Trump

Have you ever been listening to Donald Trump speaking, or reading one of his quotes, and found yourself laughing out loud?

Maybe you think he has a good sense of humor and he says funny stuff. Maybe you think he is so shocking that you laugh out of social horror. Maybe you love how he pokes your political enemies. If you are not a Trump fan, maybe you think you are laughing at him, or laughing out of disgust, or out of certainty he will be dooming himself this time for sure.

What did I teach you about events that have too many explanations?

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Why Would a Man Vote for Hillary Clinton?

Posted January 9th, 2016 @ 9:51am in #Trump #clinton

If you have been following the Master Persuader series in this blog, you know that the influence stack goes like this:

Identity beats analogy

Analogy beats reason

Reason beats nothing

Most of the candidates are trying to make an appeal to reason, and failing, because reason beats nothing. Rand Paul has lots of reasons. Some might be darned good. No one cares.

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Politico Tries to Trump Me on “The Turn”

Posted January 9th, 2016 @ 8:50am in #Trump #politico

Here’s a headline on Politico today, followed by a snippet from my post a day earlier. Check the dates and tell me where you “saw it first.” The Master Persuader scorecard keeps improving. Is it 12-for-12?

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Why I Should Win the Nobel Prize (and other things I learned from Trump)

Posted January 8th, 2016 @ 1:07pm in #Trump

As Donald Trump has taught us, we should think big, act positive, exaggerate when necessary, brag to the point of narcissism, and make yuuuuuuge first asks. Apparently that stuff works. So I will do the same today. I might also insult a competitor just to make myself look good in comparison. I think that’s fair now.

Today the New York Times is reporting that I am the most important financial expert in the history of the world. And that is why I should get the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

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Working on the White Guy Brand

Posted January 8th, 2016 @ 8:03am in #Trump #muslim #immigration

By an accident of birth, I fall into the White Guy category. To keep this on a positive note, let’s call it my brand. And that means that if other people with my outward characteristics do dumb-ass things, it reflects on my brand.

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The Thought Police Did Not Like it When I Said Something Like This

Posted January 7th, 2016 @ 5:44pm in #Trump #ISIS #RobotTargetPractice

Today I step aside to let a better communicator do her thing. See this provocative opinion by Janet L. Factor.

It is too early to call The Turn on our collective thinking about the motivation of radical Islamic terrorists, but it might happen soon. Keep in mind that Trump’s suggestion is to halt muslim immigration until we figure out what is causing it.

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Trump and Climate Science (Master Persuader Series)

Posted January 7th, 2016 @ 10:14am in #Trump #climate science

Warning: What follows should be viewed as entertainment, not truth. I’m going to spin a few brains today. History suggests that 20% of you will not like it one bit. So if you don’t want your worldview challenged, better stop here. This is written with commercial-level persuasion, just for entertainment, to see if I can change some hard-to-change minds. If you don’t want your mind changed, don’t read on.

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Let’s say that last year you believed Trump was a big, dumb clown who inherited his money, talks like a 4th grader, and has no real skills. A lot of people held that view until approximately… this week.

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