I can’t stop laughing about Trump’s Iowa reframing. You probably heard about it. The setup goes like this:
– Trump was trailing Cruz in Iowa polls.
– Trump taunted an Iowa audience with “You have not picked a lot of winners.”
– The media reported Trump’s taunts.
And the very next poll showed Trump slightly atop Cruz once you factor in the less-likely-to-vote people who will definitely vote this time.
The trap that Trump set for Iowa is that they can either vote for him – in which case he wins – or they can vote for Cruz and prove he was right about Iowa having a bad track record. Then, say the polls, he will go on to win New Hampshire.
Trump already explicitly said he would mock Iowa like crazy if they get this vote “wrong.” Remember I taught you that Trump always creates a big gap between what happens to you when you please him and what happens if you don’t. Iowa has been warned 🙂
Let me put this in more humorous words because it deserves it.
What you think you see is Trump telling people they should vote for him. In the 2D world, he is simply using different language to say what all politicians say. But in the 3D world of persuasion Trump just created a situation in which…
wait for it…
Iowans are voting on their own intelligence.
That’s an identity play. You should recognize it by now as the strongest form of persuasion.
Here’s what does NOT work: “Look at my awesome policies.”
Here’s what DOES work: “Smart people vote this way.”
As always, Trump goes for identity over reason. And once again it gets him exactly the reaction he wanted. I could literally feel the persuasion and it has been making me laugh for two days. (Laughing can be a tell for persuasion.)
If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, which seems likely at this point, he will turn on the afterburners, and the words you are likely to hear from pundits in the next two months are “natural front-runner.”
When you hear mentions of Trump as a good front-runner it means – to borrow a phrase from the world of investing – we are on the brink of “capitulation.” That’s the point where everyone just stops resisting the idea of a President Trump and starts adjusting to the reality of it.
People have been surprised that Trump could elbow his way to the front of the pack and stay there so long. But at this point, a lot of folks still think something will happen to bump Trump out of the lead. They will capitulate on that belief when they realize Trump might be the best front-runner civilization has ever created.
I’m saying Trump’s personality assures he’ll be comfortable not sharing the top spot, and it will show. His fighter instinct will evolve into a calm confidence, and the public will respond to it.