If you have been following the Master Persuader series in this blog, you know that the influence stack goes like this:
Identity beats analogy
Analogy beats reason
Reason beats nothing
Most of the candidates are trying to make an appeal to reason, and failing, because reason beats nothing. Rand Paul has lots of reasons. Some might be darned good. No one cares.
Trump says he wants to “make America great again” which is a pure identity play. Voters enjoy – at a visceral level – the idea of having a national identity that makes them proud. According to the Master Persuader stack, Trump is a full layer of influence above the others. And it shows.
But what about Hillary Clinton’s identity message? Clearly she appeals to strong, alpha women who identify with her political strength and impressive success.
But what about men?
Now that Clinton has played the woman card, and said in a public debate that her gender is a selling point for the job of president, how does a man vote for that?
Well, first we must acknowledge that all people are different. Roughly speaking, I would say 20% of men are alpha types, 20% are pure betas, and 60% are lifestyle betas – meaning they have made a conscious decision to control their ambitions and base desires in order to focus on the needs of their families.
My prediction, based on the Master Persuader filter, is that a majority of male Democrats will abandon Clinton in the privacy of the voting booth. Remember that identity always beats reason, and Clinton has made it clear that in her view, men had their turn.
A big chunk of Democratic men might be lying, for social reasons, about supporting Clinton. They might lie to friends and they might lie to pollsters. But on voting day, in the privacy of the voting booth, no lying is required. On voting day day, people vote for identity.
If you are wondering how President Obama got elected in a world where identity rules, it is because he never played the race card. That made it safe for the public to create identities for themselves as open-minded. (Yay for us!) So that was a special case.
I can’t see any scenario in which Clinton wins the male vote in her own party.
Then there’s this article that suggests Clinton’s support is soft.