Business Insider reports that Trump’s favorability rating among Republican voters was 23% before he announced his candidacy.
In July it had climbed to 59%.
Today it is 69%. That means it tripled this year.
As the article notes, this is surprising because Trump has been a known quantity for decades, and people generally don’t change their minds about known quantities to such a degree.
In other words, something Trump is doing or saying – and the public are not quite sure what – is changing people’s minds.
The article goes on to hypothesize that Trump’s stand on immigration is probably the biggest factor. That might be the case. But try this experiment at home:
1. Close your eyes.
2 Remember the time you made such a good argument about politics that you changed your Republican friend’s opinion.
Yeah, I don’t remember that either. Nor have I ever changed a Democrat’s opinion. People just don’t change opinions that much. It’s a rare thing.
But Trump did it. He did it big-time.
The experts have assured us of two things:
1. Trump can’t win because Latinos will not vote for him.
2. Nearly every American votes for their party’s candidate no matter what.
Those two things can’t both be true. Either almost everyone votes for their party’s candidate or not. Do we expect Latinos to break that pattern to vote against Trump? Perhaps so. The point is that this coming election is likely to break a pattern of the past. We just don’t know which one.
So the election might boil down to one question: Can Donald Trump convince enough Latinos to vote for him? History suggests he might have that sort of persuasive skill. Still, this is is a big ask. Bigger than any I have seen in this realm.
I’m going to triple-down on my prediction that Trump plans an “immigration surprise” after winning the Republican nomination. The surprise is that he’ll add details to his plan that make it seem kinder and more doable while still solving the problem.
If it turns out I’m wrong about everything, and Trump really is planning to round up 11 million people who consider themselves Americans, I’ll help stop that from happening. If you don’t think I can do that, you haven’t been listening.
If you think this blog is ridiculous, you should see my book.